Michael and Eric made the trip last night to our Amarillo chase base and today they will be in good position to chase the 10% hatched risk of tornadoes in eastern Oklahoma today!
...SRN AND CNTRL PLNS/OZARKS...
AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR TROUGH...50-60 KT SSWLY LLJ FROM E TX INTO
MO/IL WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS AND OZARKS...WITH 60 DEG F
SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED AS FAR N AS CNTRL MO BY EARLY SATURDAY.
ALOFT...STRONG SWLY MID AND UPR LVL FLOW EXPECTED TO FURTHER
STRENGTHEN AND SLIGHTLY BACK DURING THE PERIOD. 500 MB SPEEDS AOA
60 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER CNTRL/ERN OK AND MO...WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 80 KTS EARLY SATURDAY.
POSITIVE TILT OF UPR TROUGH WILL KEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES
COMPARATIVELY WEAK. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION...WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW...AND WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A CONCENTRATED BAND OF TSTMS EARLY TONIGHT ALONG WRN
EDGE OF LLJ/MOIST AXIS FROM CNTRL MO SW ACROSS FAR NW AR INTO ERN
OK.
WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN A HIGHLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
AWAY FROM STRONG LOW LVL LINEAR FORCING...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
ELONGATED...QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW
AND 25-30 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND...DESPITE WEAK MID LVL
LAPSE RATES. WITH TIME...STORM MODE MAY BECOME MORE COMPLEX AS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS ELONGATE AND MERGE. BUT A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR SVR WEATHER...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
TORNADOES...LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
FARTHER W...ANOTHER BAND OF STORMS MAY FORM AFTER 06Z FROM SE KS SSW
THROUGH CNTRL OK INTO N CNTRL TX AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
ACCELERATES SEWD. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL...IN
ADDITION TO HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO...AS IMPULSE NOW OVER NV
EDGES E TOWARD REGION.
Michael, Tony and Dann will be chasing Sunday's setup in west Texas and while I wish them luck I am more interested now in Tuesday's possibilities. The NAM model is showing CAPES to 1000 in northcentral TX around the Wichita Falls area. A strong broad 500h trough kicks in the afternoon and the NAM radar composite shows a big beast of a storm south of the Red River. I'm keeping an eye on this one!
SPC now has the Sunday Feb 8th system on the 4 - 8 day outlook. While moisture return will be limiting factor on this day the shear will be impressive. Although this setup is not ideal - I am leaning towards chasing it just to get out and brush the dust of all the equipment. I really like the chase terrain on Sunday making a saturday trip to Amarillo likely and then just a short drive east into OK on Sunday. After that the system moves off to eastern OK which I have no desire to chase.
It's a week away on the GFS model and ensembles but I've been looking for signs of the first chase of 2009 for Tornado Alley (not Dixie or Ohio Alley). A closed low ejects into TX on Sunday Feb 8th with marginal moisture and 1000 J capes. I know it's a long shot and still a little early in the year, but our McLean, TX tornado of 2007 was on Feb 23rd so it can happen. Keeping an eye on it.
All day we were hearing reports of snow in Denver but on this particular day it was sunny and nice up at our house. We get a few of these days a year where the plains are completely fogged out and we get a view of an ocean of clouds from our house.
Tonight when the moon rose at 4:30pm I was able to shoot a few shots off before it slipped beind the clouds. The moon's orbit around Earth is elliptical, not circular. The moon is closest to Earth at it's perigee (compare to apogee, which occurs when the moon is at its most distant point away from Earth). The moon was 50,000 km closer to Earth and was the largest visible size tonight for all of 2009. These were shot from my house at 9000' looking northeast over Boulder, CO.
The fire caused the evacuation of 800 homes including my father's at Lake View Estates. At this late hour the winds have let up, the fire has layed down and burned around the ridge to the northwest of Boulder to finally snuf it out!
Michael and Eric went after the line of storms approaching from the west early this morning. You can see them where the white arrow is above. This setup netted no tornadoes but some severe hail and high wind reports. Still a very spring like system for Christmas week and Michael's birthday today!
Michael and Eric made the trip last night to our Amarillo chase base and today they will be in good position to chase the 10% hatched risk of tornadoes in eastern Oklahoma today!
