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Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Big chase day Weds Oct 17th!




This is nuts! The WRF shows the individual supercells along the dryline in central OK. I don't think I've ever seen that!













...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN KS...WRN MO...CENTRAL AND ERN OK...NWRN AR...AND PARTS OF N TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE/NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE WRN 2/3 OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID MO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE MOVING ENEWD FROM WRN KS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY. A SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDING S FROM THIS LOW SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR AFTERNOON STORMS...WHILE A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS/SHIFTS EWD ACROSS KS AND SEWD ACROSS OK AND THE NWRN HALF OF TX THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING TORNADOES -- IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD -- CENTERED OVER PARTS OF KS AND OK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH AREAS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF DESTABILIZATION...WITH 500 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE LOCALLY EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OR DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS THE SHARPENING DRYLINE MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL KS/ACROSS WRN OK SHOULD SERVE AS FOCI FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN ROUGHLY N-S DRYLINE AND DISTINCT WLY COMPONENT TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS OK/N TX...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. VERY STRONG WIND FIELD IS FORECAST...AS 50 TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ATOP STRONG SLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW. RESULTING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT INITIATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD RAPIDLY ACQUIRE ROTATION...WITH SEVERAL SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STORMS LIKELY. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...LOW LCLS/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR SUGGEST THAT MULTIPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG AND RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE/SPREAD EWD ACROSS MO/AR AND PERHAPS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT. GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG MIXING...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION MAY BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONVECTION SPREADS EWD.



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