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Saturday, June 24, 2006

Storm tracks south over Boulder and Denver



Thursday, June 22, 2006

Possible tornado near Hugo, CO at 3:21pm?


9 of us stared at this lowering and could not determine if it was a tornado or not. Perhaps we'll never know for sure.


Sure looked like a wedge tornado but we could not confirm rotation or contact with the ground.

Chasing today in eastern CO

for later today low level flow east of the mtns will
generally be ese which will allow for deeper low level moisture to
remain in place. should see tstms develop by mid aftn in and near
the foothills and over the palmer divide with activity then moving
eastward onto the plains by late aftn into the early evening hours.
current wrf is focusing best activity over the palmer divide
eastward into elbert and lincoln counties by late aftn. sfc based
capes will probably be in the 1500=2000 j/kg range by mid aftn and
with 30-35 kt of wnw flow aloft combined with ese low level flow
should see some svr storms. although the main threat from the
storms would be large hail with increasing ese low level flow by
aftn may see a few tornadoes as well especially over ern elbert and
lincoln counties where low level flow is fcst to be the strongest.

Sunday, June 18, 2006

Lightning over Denver



Got a brief dry thunderstorm that put out some photogenic lightning this evening. These shots are from my deck overlooking Denver from 9080' in the mountains.

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Latest image from Verne's mobile picture phone. So here's how bad 2OO6 has been, I just ran into Josh Worman at the shopping mall in the month of June?!

Thursday, June 15, 2006

Twin Suparu's!

Latest image from Verne's mobile picture phone. Driving to CostCo today at lunch I found my twin. Same year, same color, everything.

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

The top chases of 2006






Michael and I had a decent year and I count my blessings that I was as lucky as I was on such a marginal year. They included a Tornado Day, a Gustnado Day, a Funnel Day and many, many mothership meso days.

Some of the more outstanding days for us were:
May 7, 2006 Garden City, KS - 3 Tornadoes, 1 landspout all bearing down on Garden City.
May 23, 2006 Eastern South Dakota - numerous gustnadoes, 1 non-meso Tornado doing damage on I-29
May 26, 2006 Cedar Point, CO - Too many funnels to count on a highly sheared meso
May 28, 2006 Badlands, SD - Tornado warned meso
June 9, 2006 Mullen, NE - Tornado warned meso

I was also lucky to have my vacation such that I could take a big block off from the end of May till mid June as well as have enough to move around for 'high potential' days. Here's to hoping it's not all over yet (or did it ever really begin??)

Possible Severe in E CO Thursday

With the strong neg tilt trough coming into the nw today, there is a good deal of dynamics and upper level cooling coming in. If we can get some surface moisture to back in to e CO tomorrow we could get a decent chance of severe according to the latest AFD, keeping an eye on it!

DEN AFD: the trickier
part about tomorrow will be how much moisture will be around and
consequently how big a chance of storms in the afternoon and
evening. if dewpoints could get high enough would be a decent
severe threat over the plains.

Sunday, June 11, 2006

Chased all the way up to the Pawnee Grasslands

Latest image from Verne's mobile picture phone. Nice CU field forming over e CO now

Michael, Eric and I chased all the way up to the Pawnee Buttes and got some great shots of the storm coming out of Kimball, NE over the grasslands. Will have some pics up soon.

I'm back at work now and it looks like a quiet, hot few days with little chance of storms. Unless you live in someplace silly like the pac NW!

Severe weather possible close to Denver

SPC has lowered the tornado risk to 2% and the surface winds are still light and ill-defined but things still look good for possible brief tornadoes.

DEN HWO: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD AND DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND STRONGER AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AFTER 2 PM WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS. DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND A POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-76 CORRIDOR...ONE OR TWO SHORT LIVED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GREELEY TO LIMON.

Last day of chasing for Chasecation 2006


Today is another chase day in e CO with SPC upping the tornado probs from last night to 5%. Last night Tony L and Chris R's persistence paid off as the high based cell moving east across CO took a right turn and got some great structure out near the CO/KS border. I suspect that today will evolve much like yesterday, so the plan is to head out afternoon east of Denver and wait for a tail-end storm to develop near the Limon area.

Right now Tds are marginal and winds are not yet out of the east on the plains so I'll be looking for those to start lining up before making any final decisions.
Edit: Tds are up to 56 in Burlington with 61 backing it up into KS so if that can advect further east I think it's going to be a good day!

From the DEN HWO: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND STRONGER AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR WHERE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS EXISTS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS. DUE TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM LIMON TO GREELEY

DEN AFD: BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE IS THE THREAT OF EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO OVER THE PLAINS.

Saturday, June 10, 2006

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Latest image from Verne's mobile picture phone. At the hotel checking data.

Potentially big day today in the NE panhandle!

Will be leaving the hotel when they kick us out. We are in the target area but we may move a little northwest and play closer to the WY/NE border.

Potentially big day today in the NE panhandle!

Southeasterly winds with high 50 Tds and a strong 500mb shortwave progged to move over the area spells supercells with possible tornadoes for the NE panhandle today. We are currently in Ogallala, NE and will be heading out slightly west and maybe north from here for today's setup. Good luck to all those chasing today!

Friday, June 09, 2006

More pics from the amazing Meso in Cherry County, NE

Michael and I watch as the meso moves slowly our way.

Possible funnel but no touchdown confirmed!

Meso slowly moves towards us exibiting the best structure I've seen all year!

Meso in Cherry County, NE!

Latest image from Verne's mobile picture phone. Michael and I were able to intercept this nice tornado warned meso in cherry county, NE tonight after bailing on the eastern NE/SD original target. This cell had the best structure I've seen all year and tried many times to spin up scud from underneath but never did tornado as far as we could see.

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Heading out to our next destination. Ogallala NE for tomorrows setup

Now the wait begins

Got a long and painful wait for today's storms but I am still slightly optomistic we may see something today.

From the Sioux City, IA HWO: HAIL THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH WINDGUSTS TO 65 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALINE FROM PICKSTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA TO STORM LAKE IOWA.

edit: This just out from Sioux City: JUST COMPLETED A SVR WX CHECKLIST FOR THE SIOUX CITY AREA TONIGHT NEAR THE WRMFNT. LOW LVLS DO LOOK DRY AND IN FACT HAS PRODUCED AN LCL NEAR 7000 FT. THEREFORE DESPITE THE BOUNDARY...AGREE WITH SPC THAT TORNADIC ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR A THREAT. FURTHERMORE...0-3KM CAPE IS LIMITED WHICH SHOULD HELP TO ALSO LIMIT LANDSPOUT ACTIVITY.

So now I am seriously considering calling it a day and heading back west for tomorrow in e CO.

We are in Norfolk, NE

Michael and I are currently in Norfolk, NE at a motel getting wifi in a nice shady spot. I wanted to head further north but I think we will hold here for awhile where we can check data and get food as options north into SD probably get more scarce.

Surface obs are showing mostly upper 50 Tds but there is hope for some of the promised higher dews to get here. I see a few sites in w IA with 62-68 Tds that should get pulled into the low forming to our northwest.

Now it's just wait and see.

Thursday, June 08, 2006

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Latest image from Verne's mobile picture phone We are in York, NE at the Best Western ready for tomorrow's action.

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Heading out to our next destination. Nebraska

Wednesday, June 07, 2006

Iowa chase on Friday?



Chris Rozoff gave us all a heads up to a potential big day in Iowa on Friday. Looks like at 0z a surface low sets up over central IA giving good shear ne of the low. Capes are nice and high at around 3500 j/kg and the 700mb Temps show that the edge of the cap is to the sw of central IA. I am seriously considering leaving Denver mid morning tomorrow, staying overnight in Omaha, NE and then making the rest of the drive to Des Moines, IA. We would then chase from there friday night and stay over close to whatever target setups for saturday (which Chris is calling a high cape event). We would chase saturday and come home sunday morning from wherever we end up saturday night. That would end my chasecation for 2006 as I go back to work monday morning.

Monday, June 05, 2006

Can't chase today

If I had not made plans I would likely be targeting northcentral KS today, maybe just ne of Colby. Tomorrow I hope to get into town around 4-5pm and see what's brewing and likely shoot out to Limon, although the wording for both days seems rather weak. With Tuesday being right over Denver it is a minimal investment of time and money.

Sunday, June 04, 2006

Chase season winding down

Chase season is winding down, or did it ever really get started? This year will go down as one of the most lack luster seasons on record with many chasers not seeing a single tornado and no real outbreak days to speak of. I have to consider myself lucky that I hit every setup however weak which resulted in Michael and I seeing atleast 8 vorticies of varying size and duration. So outside of the local Colorado upslope chases and the one or two troughs that might break through the ridge I am going to slowly shift my attention from chasing to other fun summer activities such as running, mountain biking and working around the house. Amanda and I are going to take a mini-vacation to Glenwood Springs where we'll stay at the historic Colorado Hotel. From there we can hike to Hanging Lake which is something I've wanted to do for a long time, visit the hotsprings pool and take a ride up the gondola and visit the Glenwood Caverns. Caving is my hobby from before my stormchasing days and I remember when that cave was a wild cave called 'Fairy Caves' from my old books.

And as soon as I made those plans I see that SPC has circled Denver for Tuesday for Brief Tornadoes. All Denver chasers can thank me for that!

Saturday, June 03, 2006

Chase potential today in central NE!

Edit: Gotta agree with Chris that high LCLs and a persistant cirrus shield will make this one to pass on. No chasing today.

...CNTRL/NRN PLNS... SRN PART OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW IN MT WILL REDEVELOP E/SE INTO WRN SD AND NEB LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT IN THE WRN DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEST DEEP WLY SHEAR IN ND SHOULD GRADE INTO SOMEWHAT STRONGER /30-35 KT/ WNWLY SHEAR IN SD AND NEB...WHERE PROFILES WILL EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AVERAGE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

From the North Platte, NE HWO: AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OR NEAR HIGHWAY 20 ACROSS CHERRY AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES. STORM MOTION WILL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT NEAR 20MPH. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG SUPPORTING LONG LIVED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING BEFORE NIGHTFALL.

Thursday, June 01, 2006

Eastern CO Meso pics!

Meso as it rises over Cedar Point hill and moves towards us near hw71 in e CO. Many times it looked like it was about to tornado but never did.

Lowering seen north of Flagler, CO as seen from I-70

Lowering over Agate, CO as seen from Cedar Point hill, CO

The Carlsons', Verne, Michael and Eric

The Carlsons', Verne, Michael and Eric

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