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Saturday, October 11, 2008

No chasing this weekend - or is there?

Well as expected hurricane Norbert has cast it's influence into the e NM/w TX area and has all but cutoff all chances for the great kinematics to produce tornadoes. There will be a lot of rain and some marginally severe hail but not enough to warrant a trip down to the south. At the house here we are alternating between bright clear skies and low fog rolling in. This could be our first shot at some measurable snow for the 08-09 winter season!

Edit: SPC just put up a 5% tornado risk area for the w OK panhandle. I am seriously considering heading out the door and shooting down there. The vertical sheer today and tomorrow is amazing on the edge of the 110 kt 500mb jet!

Edit 2: Dann you said it - we need sunlight! Now it's 7:15pm MDT and we have a tornado watch for ne NM, must be driven entirely by wind dynamics. Wow STRONG TORNADOES possible:


DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG SSW-NNE
CONFLUENCE ZONE IN E CNTRL/SE NM. OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ALONG SIMILAR CONFLUENCE BAND IN MORE DEEPLY-MIXED ENVIRONMENT IN N
CNTRL/ NE NM. STRENGTH OF EXISTING WIND FIELD...LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME
BACKING/STRENGTHENING OF NEAR-SFC FLOW...AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
OVER ERN NM SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD BUT POSSIBLY STRONG
TORNADOES
OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE AND IN ADJACENT PARTS OF TX.
HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORMS IN THE N
CNTRL/NE NM.

1 comment:

Dann Cianca said...

If only the damn sun would come out!!!

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