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Friday, December 26, 2008

Michael and Eric chasing tornadoes across eastern Oklahoma today!


Michael and Eric made the trip last night to our Amarillo chase base and today they will be in good position to chase the 10% hatched risk of tornadoes in eastern Oklahoma today!

...SRN AND CNTRL PLNS/OZARKS...
AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR TROUGH...50-60 KT SSWLY LLJ FROM E TX INTO
MO/IL WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS AND OZARKS...WITH 60 DEG F
SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED AS FAR N AS CNTRL MO BY EARLY SATURDAY.
ALOFT...STRONG SWLY MID AND UPR LVL FLOW EXPECTED TO FURTHER
STRENGTHEN AND SLIGHTLY BACK DURING THE PERIOD. 500 MB SPEEDS AOA
60 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER CNTRL/ERN OK AND MO...WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 80 KTS EARLY SATURDAY.

POSITIVE TILT OF UPR TROUGH WILL KEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES
COMPARATIVELY WEAK. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION...WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW LVL FLOW...AND WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF A CONCENTRATED BAND OF TSTMS EARLY TONIGHT ALONG WRN
EDGE OF LLJ/MOIST AXIS FROM CNTRL MO SW ACROSS FAR NW AR INTO ERN
OK.

WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN A HIGHLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
AWAY FROM STRONG LOW LVL LINEAR FORCING...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
ELONGATED...QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW
AND 25-30 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND...DESPITE WEAK MID LVL
LAPSE RATES. WITH TIME...STORM MODE MAY BECOME MORE COMPLEX AS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS ELONGATE AND MERGE. BUT A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR SVR WEATHER...INCLUDING POSSIBLE TORNADOES...LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

FARTHER W...ANOTHER BAND OF STORMS MAY FORM AFTER 06Z FROM SE KS SSW
THROUGH CNTRL OK INTO N CNTRL TX AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
ACCELERATES SEWD. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL...IN
ADDITION TO HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...AS IMPULSE NOW OVER NV
EDGES E TOWARD REGION.

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The Carlsons', Verne, Michael and Eric

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