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Thursday, February 22, 2007

Day 1 SPC is out this evening, 15% torn 60% hail unreal!





...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL KS...SWD INTO NWRN TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM CENTRAL TX INTO SRN NEB... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING... A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS CA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES LATE TODAY...INDUCING LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN CO/NWRN KS BY EARLY EVENING. PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR WIDESPREAD...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF KS...OK...INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. INTENSE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD WHERE 12 HOUR FALLS IN EXCESS OF 200 M ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM IS EVIDENT BY DIGGING UPPER JET INTO WEST TX WHICH SHOULD APPROACH 110 KT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT 500 MB. NEEDLESS TO SAY...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME VERY INTENSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS THIS UPPER SPEED MAX SPREADS ATOP STRENGTHENING LLJ FROM TX INTO ERN NEB. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS TX...NWD INTO THE STRONGLY FORCED REGION OVER OK INTO KS. LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTS MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS WILL SURGE NWD ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF SWRN TX...NWD ACROSS WRN OK...POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS. GIVEN THE VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION...APPROACHING MINUS 20 AT 500MB...MORE THAN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG/EAST OF DRY LINE BY 00Z. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX DUE TO STRONG DIURNAL HEATING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS NWRN TX WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE DRY LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES COULD EASILY EXCEED 1500 J/KG FROM WEST OF ABI...NWD ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER. IT APPEARS PARCELS SHOULD FREELY CONVECT...DESPITE WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE...MAINLY DUE TO HEATING AND WEAKENED CAP. LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SWRN KS BY 00Z...THEN MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD AT ROUGHLY 40 KT WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHEAR WITHIN THE INFLOW LAYER WELL IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2. IF SUPERCELLS EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. WITH TIME THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE...POTENTIALLY INTENSE...AS VERY STRONG FORCING SPREADS ACROSS THIS ONGOING CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS. A WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL KS/OK INTO NCNTRL TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

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