...GREAT PLAINS... AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. FRIDAY CLOSING OFF OVER THE SCNTRL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...A VERY STRONG 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP IN THE SRN PLAINS AND A MOIST AXIS WILL SET UP FROM NW TX EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO WCNTRL KS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE 55 TO 58 F RANGE ALLOWING FOR POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST EAST OF A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE MOIST AXIS MAY REMAIN CAPPED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ON FRIDAY ACROSS WRN OK AND THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS OF NORTHWEST TX. ONCE CONVECTION INITIATES...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD QUICKLY OCCUR DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF 60-70 KT. IN ADDITION...STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY VERY STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF AN EJECTING 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW CLASSIC LOADED-GUN TYPE SOUNDINGS WITH 0-3 KM SRH INCREASING TO ABOVE 500 M2/S2 DURING THE EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 30 KT WILL MAKE STRONG TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY EVENING...SHOULD STRONG CAPPING BE OVERCOME. VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHOES SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS WCNTRL KS...CNTRL OK AND NRN TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY AND SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS ERN OK/ECNTRL KS/NERN TX LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALSO...A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR IN CNTRL NEB BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN THAT TAKES PLACE IN THE CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY. IF MOISTURE RETURN ENDS UP BEING STRONGER THAN FORECAST...AN UPGRADE MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
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