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Saturday, June 03, 2006

Chase potential today in central NE!

Edit: Gotta agree with Chris that high LCLs and a persistant cirrus shield will make this one to pass on. No chasing today.

...CNTRL/NRN PLNS... SRN PART OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW IN MT WILL REDEVELOP E/SE INTO WRN SD AND NEB LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT IN THE WRN DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEST DEEP WLY SHEAR IN ND SHOULD GRADE INTO SOMEWHAT STRONGER /30-35 KT/ WNWLY SHEAR IN SD AND NEB...WHERE PROFILES WILL EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AVERAGE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

From the North Platte, NE HWO: AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OR NEAR HIGHWAY 20 ACROSS CHERRY AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES. STORM MOTION WILL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT NEAR 20MPH. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG SUPPORTING LONG LIVED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY OCCURRING BEFORE NIGHTFALL.

4 comments:

cmrozoff said...

Nice hodograph at LBF. I think I will sit this one out, but there could be some photogenic, high-based supercells this evening (southbound supercells).

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