Tuesday is our travel evening out to NE/SD for weds. Along the way we will be watching for potential action right in our backyard with SPC calling for tornadoes in e CO!
THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DENVER CYCLONE. MUCAPE INCREASES TO BETWEEN 2000-2200 J/KG OVER ERN CO BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8.5C/KM. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO SPELL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO TUESDAY AFTERNOON FORMING INTO MCS ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION OF WRN KS SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. MODEL HODOGRAPHS ACROSS ERN CO INDICATES FAVORABLE PROFILES WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 45 KT AND 0-3KM HELICITY BETWEEN 200-250 M2/S2 SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS INITIALLY. THIS WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER ERN CO...BUT MORE LIKELY LARGE HAIL AS THE STORMS DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
From the Denver AFD: .LONG TERM...WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...PEAKING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY EVENING AS THE WIND PROFILE BECOMESVERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES IN THE EVENING WITH NAM SOUNDING AT AKRON SHOWING SOUTH WINDS AT 35 KT AT800 MB...GIVING 0-3 KM HELICITY OF 360 M2/S2. SO...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO POTENTIAL IF THE SITUATION SETS UP AS THE NAM SHOWS. THERE COULD BE A FOCUS IN CONVERGENCE BETWEEN SOUTH WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF US AND MORE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS NEBRASKA...ACROSS NORTHEAST OR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHTHE WHOLE ATMOSPHERE...WHATEVER DEVELOPS SHOULD PROPAGATE EASTWARDAND WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
Precip breaks out on the NE/SD border at 0z west of Valentine, NE
Nice strong 500mb southwesterly flow punching into NE.
Capes over 4000 J/kg in the target area at 0z! Weds looks absolutely amazing with SPC already going moderate and 45% hatched for severe weather in e SD and NE.
WITH 60 TO 80 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ABOVE STRONG/INTENSIFYING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SHEAR SHOULD BE EXCEPTIONALLY-FAVORABLE -- GIVEN DEGREE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY -- FOR LARGE/INTENSE SUPERCELL STORMS. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED -- WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ATTM ACROSS THE ERN HALVES OF SD AND NEB AND INTO SWRN MN/WRN IA.
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