After looking at the latest GFS run I am now leaning towards Saturday March 4th as the best day for chasing this weekend. There is a nice 997mb closed surface low in western KS at 0Z with 45-50F Tds as far north as central KS. There is diverging 500mb winds over KS with nice 30-40kt veering SE winds into the surface low. Max temps that day get up to 70F. I think if the surface low forms within the requisit 200 miles from the upper low and we get sufficient warming in the clear slot we could have a classic cold core setup as described by Jon Davies.
I think Friday afternoon bears watching for eastern CO/western KS as a Day 1 event. I think we could get some weak low-topped supercells with weak cold air funnels that we often get this time of year east of Denver.
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