Mar 3 - Mar 5 Chase Possibility (Updated)

Back on weds 2/22 I published my forecast for severe weather in the plains for the Mar 2 - 3 period. SPC now seems to agree with Mar 3 - 5 being the time period. Things are coming together nicely for what could be the first chase of the year.




From this mornings SPC 4-8 Day outlook site (thanks to Tony L for turning me on to this link!)

...DISCUSSION... LATEST MODEL SUITE /ECMWF...CMC...GFS...MREF/ HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF THE MID-WEEK TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN STATES. EARLIER VERSIONS OF THE GFS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z MREF/ECMWF IN SUPPORTING A LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF THE WAVE IS LOW...MSTR TRANSPORT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THU-SAT /02-04 MARCH/. PRIMARY SFC LOW COULD DEVELOP FAIRLY FAR N ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE DRYLINE SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY EARLY SAT /04 MARCH/. INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING ATOP THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ENHANCED RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS FROM FRI /03 MARCH/ TO SUN /05 MARCH/ SPANNING THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID-MS VLY.