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Monday, March 19, 2007

Target for Weds March 21st


Ok after looking at the latest WRF and GFS runs (which are in fairly good agreement) I have come up with a target as shown above. To me it looks like the area near the triple point in the warm sector has the best dynamics overall. At 0Z there's a shortwave nosing in right as capes are maximized. Target as of now: Hill City to north of Russel, KS (of course that could change!)
On the upside of this target - we could leave Weds morning and make it easily to the target and save a night's motel cost.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE STORMS WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 3 PM AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL FIRST SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OF THE SEASON.


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