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Tuesday, March 20, 2007

"The Target Remains"

The 12Z WRF/ETA model run is out and my target from yesterday 'remains' to the north of Russel, KS. If I had to pick a town, I'd say somewhere near Concordia, KS. The road networks in this area area good in case we have to go north. Everything is set to get up at 5:00am tomorrow, pick up Michael in Lafayette and be on the road by 6:00am. Concordia is 7 hours away so that should put is at the target area at 2:00pm CDT with a couple gas stops along the way. Tony, Jon, Tom and Jenn are meeting at the Airport P&R at 6:30am on I-70 so that will put us all on the road at about the same time.

Only fly in the ointment that I can see in the latest model run is the 500mb winds are a little lighter than previous runs, hopefully we'll see those kick in stronger than progged.

Cap could be an issue as the 'significant' cap line runs through Salina, KS and points south so we're pretty close to it. 6-7 C at 700Mb is the rule here according to Jon Davies site: http://members.cox.net/jondavies1/700mbTcap/700mbTcapguide.gif

Excited to be out again on the first full day of spring and almost one full month after our successful tornado intercept on Feb 23, in McLean, TX

From the HASTINGS, NE HWO:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE STORMS WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 3 PM AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL FIRST SEVERE WEATHER EVENTOF THE SEASON.

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The Carlsons', Verne, Michael and Eric

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