The 12Z WRF/ETA model run is out and my target from yesterday 'remains' to the north of Russel, KS. If I had to pick a town, I'd say somewhere near Concordia, KS. The road networks in this area area good in case we have to go north. Everything is set to get up at 5:00am tomorrow, pick up Michael in Lafayette and be on the road by 6:00am. Concordia is 7 hours away so that should put is at the target area at 2:00pm CDT with a couple gas stops along the way. Tony, Jon, Tom and Jenn are meeting at the Airport P&R at 6:30am on I-70 so that will put us all on the road at about the same time.
Only fly in the ointment that I can see in the latest model run is the 500mb winds are a little lighter than previous runs, hopefully we'll see those kick in stronger than progged.
Cap could be an issue as the 'significant' cap line runs through Salina, KS and points south so we're pretty close to it. 6-7 C at 700Mb is the rule here according to Jon Davies site: http://members.cox.net/jondavies1/700mbTcap/700mbTcapguide.gif
Excited to be out again on the first full day of spring and almost one full month after our successful tornado intercept on Feb 23, in McLean, TX
From the HASTINGS, NE HWO:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE STORMS WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 3 PM AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL FIRST SEVERE WEATHER EVENTOF THE SEASON.
Live Geo-referenced Storm Chaser Video. First in the Field Aerial Live Streaming and Aerial Storm Intercepts. High Resolution Level II Radar Data. Severe Weather Forecasts and Reports by Storm Chasers/Severe Weather Videographers Verne, Michael and Eric Carlson. For live stream and video licensing contact us at: vernecarlson@hotmail.com
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Tuesday, March 20, 2007
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2007
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March
(26)
- 2007-03-28 Report
- Wedge north of Booker, TX
- Moderate Risk!
- Mar 28th Tornado Outbreak?
- We got one!
- Waiting for initiation
- Morning Day 1 is out
- ETA/NAM for Sat Mar 24, 2007
- Bedding down for the night in Colby, KS
- Eastern CO in March!
- Weds March 28th Possibilty
- 2007-03-23 Report
- Almost to Salina, KS
- "The Target Remains"
- Target for Weds March 21st
- Looking ahead at next week
- Weds now on the UCAR GFS site
- Multiple days of chasing next week
- Nice sunset
- Weds Mar 21st holding in there
- Panorama from my deck
- Dumping snow at our house
- Panorama blogging from my cell phone!
- Early signs of convection in Denver, CO
- Trying new data sources
- Next chase March 16th?
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March
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