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Thursday, June 05, 2008

High risk thursday - again!


Yesterday we lingered too long in Kansas and missed the tornado action to the north in NE and e CO but the tornadoes where out in Iowa - a target that few realised. But today marks the third thursday in a row that we've had a High Risk of severe weather - and we've gotten tornadoes each of these days.

Looking at the RUC and WRF models I think the triple point sets up back south and west a bit south of Lincoln to the KS/NE line. The warm front where storms will go crazy as they cross it will arc northeasterly from there to the Sioux City, IA area. We are all meeting in 1/2 hour to discuss today's target which will likely be Sioux City, IA.

Live streaming and tracker will be running and the witches will be flying!

INTENSITY OF WIND FIELD THROUGHOUT THE PLNS ENSURES THAT ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WILL ROTATE. BUT DECIDEDLY MERIDIONAL/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE PROFILES ABOVE THE NEAR-SFC LAYER /REFLECTING EARLY-SPRING TYPE KINEMATIC SETUP/ LIKELY WILL YIELD VERY STRONGLY ELONGATED AND SHEARED STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW AND MERIDIONAL EXTENT OF WARM SECTOR...THESE COULD YIELD STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES.

1 comment:

stevesadlov said...

Any video or other data yet? Looks like it passed just east of North Platte earlier this PM.

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