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Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Hoping for a Kansas surprise!


Eric and I will be heading out this morning from Denver as soon as possible and we are targeting the NE/KS border on the south end of the 15% hatched area above. Analyzing the NAM last night I like this area logistically because we can reach it by 2pm CDT and also because of the surface low and dryline bulge in the Hays, KS area. We won't be with TWISTEX on this trip since I only have the one day off. We are out the door very soon here!

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN PART OF THE WARM SECTOR SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET. THIS ALONG WITH GRADUAL VEERING IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE A SQUALL-LINE ORGANIZES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA INCREASE 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES INTO THE 250 T0 300 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. A TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR MODE SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AS A SQUALL-LINE WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD STILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST DURING MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LARGE WARM SECTOR. FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION. A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS FORECAST FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL KS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO MAY OCCUR ACROSS NRN KS WHERE LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER THAN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. EVENTUALLY...A LINEAR MCS SHOULD ORGANIZE AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS CNTRL KS DURING THE EVENING. FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS SW KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. STILL...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL IN THIS REGION.

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The Carlsons', Verne, Michael and Eric

The Carlsons', Verne, Michael and Eric

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