Hangin in Hays

$1.58 gas in Hays KS. We are out in Kansas today knocking off the list of things to do on the Russell, KS chase base. Its looking good and ready for next spring!

Things still to do:

• Plumber to open up the bathroom drain.
• White paint for kitchen trim and closet door.
• Liquid nails for kitchen thresholds.
• Stain the front deck.
• Hunter Green trim on the outside doors and windows.
• Insulating strip on the back door.
• Back room window locks.
• Horizontal mini-blinds for bathroom.
• Clock radios in all bedrooms.
• Sand down and then retape some cracks around the interior doorways. Repaint with tan.

Russell Kansas Chase Base - Things to do

This Friday, Amanda and I are going to head out to Russell, KS and get some work done on the house. I'm making a list here so that I am sure to buy all the supplies for the trip. The only critical things are the plumbing. Everything else is 'nice-to-have'. I want to get these things done now so that I don't have them to do next spring when things get crazy again!

• Replace the kitchen drain trap in the crawlspace. It froze last winter and when it was turned on this fall all the water from the kitchen sink ran into the crawl space.
• Unclog the bathroom sink drain. Somewhere beyond the trap there is a clog keeping the sink from draining. I have a hand-crank snake to hopefully unclog it. If this doesn't work I may rip the entire drain line out and rebuild it with PVC.
• Stain the front deck. Bought some clear deck stain already.
• Paint the front door. The door was exposed to the elements before previous owner added the storm door. Got a can of green paint already.
• Setup the 2nd bedroom timer lamp.
• Install exterior spigot covers. Need to still buy these. * bought
• Bring the weather alert radio and install it in the kitchen.
• Bring the US wall map in the office to put up in the house.
• Attempt to mow the backyard. The grass may have dried up enough now to push the mower through the jungle of high grass.
• Sand down and then retape some cracks around the interior doorways.
• Bedroom closet door is sticky. Trim it down so it fits again.
• Measure for the kitchen floor thresholds.

Fog over Denver

We get nights like this only a few times a year when we can see over the top of the fog below. The picture may not capture it well but you can see the lights of Denver shining up from below the cloud layer.

Chinook Winds along hw93

The Chinook Winds are blowing hard along hw93 this morning. Toppling this old dead pine tree. Verne Carlson

Favored Chase Areas Map

Tallying up the number of mentions on a recent stormtrack.org thread - I came up with this map for favored chase areas of the country. No surprise that the Texas panhandle and caprock region was the overwhelming winner. Surprised that no one mentioned eastern Colorado but maybe that should have been my job.

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Severe weather possible next Sunday!

SPC has next sunday and monday as severe days in Texas. I checked the GFS and see the trough but no cape on those days. The trough doesn't look particularily deep so will have to see. Will note it here and be watching it for a possible trip to Amarillo on Sunday!

Edit: 84hr out NAM is showing a tonge of 1000J/kg cape up into the Wichita Falls, TX area on sunday night. I'll be watching over the next couple days. If that can move back west into the TX panhandle I might bite!

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CONVECTIVE
DESTABILIZATION WILL BECOME MORE THAN SUFFICIENT...IN THE PRESENCE
OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS... ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

Tornadoes possible in Kansas/Oklahoma today

Tornadoes are possible today in a small area and timeframe on the eastern KS/OK border. RUC is showing 2000J/kg2 Cape at 0z over the Wichita area and with ample shear rotating storms and tornadoes are expected. I opted to sit this one out as I believe the narrow window of daylight and the chase terrain are not ideal. Still I would've loved to have given it a shot. The distance away would've meant a stay at Russel before and after and still a 5 hour drive to the target from there. Good luck everyone who is out there!

ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL WILL
HAVE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AS THEY TRACK NEWD ACROSS SERN
KS/NERN OK THRU THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED
SUPERCELLS INCLUDING POSSIBLE STRONG TORNADOES AS THEY TRACK THRU
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS THIS EVENING DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE. SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND SWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL OK
BY 00Z.

Late season severe chances - but I'll sit this one out

Still mulling things over for a chase on Weds. Pluses are that everything looks like it will be in place for severe weather. Even with the early sunset of 5:45pm CST it looks like there will be ample CAPE and erroded cap by 3-4pm so that we'll have a couple hours of storms before dark. Also on the plus side is that since this is a pacific front there won't be a raging blizzard on the backside to content with. Gas is reasonable at $2.29/gal but I have to take the Exped so that negates the cheap gas!

Minuses right now are the distance east with most targets starting at I-35 and going east from there. Right now I'm about 50-50 on going. I have all my gear in the car and will decide after the 12z NAM model run.

EDIT: after the latest NAM run the dryline is moved even farther east of I-35. The latest SPC day 2 also cut back on the 30% severe area and expects that a squall line will develop. Given that, I'm going to sit this one out. It is November afterall and not May!

Wichita AFD from this morning:
WED & WED NIGHT:THESE CONTINUE TO BE 2 MOST VOLATILE PERIODS OF FORECAST. WITH UPR-DECKTROF ASSUMING MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT DIGS FURTHER OVER SRN ROCKIES...UPR DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE WED WITH STRONG(!) SWLY UPR-DECK FLOW (500MB WINDS OF 50-70KTS) PROGGED TO SPREAD NE ACROSS KS WED AFTERNOON. DEEPLAYER SHEAR IMPRESSIVE BOTH FROM SPEED & DIRECTIONAL STANDPOINTS. WITHPACIFIC COLD FRONT SURGING SE ACROSS KICT COUNTRY WED EVENING SUCH SHEARWILL INCREASE FURTHER. SBCAPES OF 1,000-1,300J PROGGED OVER MOST OF KICTCOUNTRY WED AFTERNOON & WITH STRONG 700-500MB COLD ADVECTION INVADING KSAS MID-UPR LOW VENTURES E ACROSS NRN PLAINS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION ISLIKELY. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THAT SUPERCELLS WILLDEVELOP OVER AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG & E OF I-135 WED AFTERNOON & EVENING& WITH SUCH STRONG MID-UPR FLOW...SUPERCELLS TO BE FAST-MOVING WITHDAMAGING WINDS OF 60-70 MPH & LARGE HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE. ONLY CHANGESWERE TO INCREASE POPS WED NIGHT OVER SE KS AS CONVERGENCE ALONGAPPROACHING COLD FRONT IMPRESSIVE.

Severe weather a possibility for Weds!

Weds may see some severe weather in eastern Kansas on Weds. I am keeping an eye on the models and will decide on a go/no-go by Tuesday.

From the Wichita NWS:
WED & WED NIGHT:
THESE 2 PERIODS CONTINUE TO BE MOST VOLATILE OF THIS WEEK. WITH THE UPR
TROF ASSUMING SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES SRN ROCKIES UPR-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVER THE KICT COUNTRY WED AFTERNOON.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL THEREFORE BE IMPRESSIVE & THEREFORE SUPPORTIVE OF
A FEW FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS AS SW 500MB FLOW LIKELY REACHING 50-70KTS.
MID-UPR LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IMPRESSIVE & WILL PROMOTE CONSIDERABLE
DESTABILIZATION. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SVR TSRA WILL
ERUPT OVER MUCH OF ERN HALF OF KS WED AFTERNOON & EVENING.