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Thursday, November 06, 2008

Severe weather possible next Sunday!

SPC has next sunday and monday as severe days in Texas. I checked the GFS and see the trough but no cape on those days. The trough doesn't look particularily deep so will have to see. Will note it here and be watching it for a possible trip to Amarillo on Sunday!

Edit: 84hr out NAM is showing a tonge of 1000J/kg cape up into the Wichita Falls, TX area on sunday night. I'll be watching over the next couple days. If that can move back west into the TX panhandle I might bite!

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CONVECTIVE
DESTABILIZATION WILL BECOME MORE THAN SUFFICIENT...IN THE PRESENCE
OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS... ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

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