Live Geo-referenced Storm Chaser Video. First in the Field Aerial Live Streaming and Aerial Storm Intercepts. High Resolution Level II Radar Data. Severe Weather Forecasts and Reports by Storm Chasers/Severe Weather Videographers Verne, Michael and Eric Carlson. For live stream and video licensing contact us at: email@example.com
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Still mulling things over for a chase on Weds. Pluses are that everything looks like it will be in place for severe weather. Even with the early sunset of 5:45pm CST it looks like there will be ample CAPE and erroded cap by 3-4pm so that we'll have a couple hours of storms before dark. Also on the plus side is that since this is a pacific front there won't be a raging blizzard on the backside to content with. Gas is reasonable at $2.29/gal but I have to take the Exped so that negates the cheap gas!
Minuses right now are the distance east with most targets starting at I-35 and going east from there. Right now I'm about 50-50 on going. I have all my gear in the car and will decide after the 12z NAM model run.
EDIT: after the latest NAM run the dryline is moved even farther east of I-35. The latest SPC day 2 also cut back on the 30% severe area and expects that a squall line will develop. Given that, I'm going to sit this one out. It is November afterall and not May!
Wichita AFD from this morning:
WED & WED NIGHT:THESE CONTINUE TO BE 2 MOST VOLATILE PERIODS OF FORECAST. WITH UPR-DECKTROF ASSUMING MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT DIGS FURTHER OVER SRN ROCKIES...UPR DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE WED WITH STRONG(!) SWLY UPR-DECK FLOW (500MB WINDS OF 50-70KTS) PROGGED TO SPREAD NE ACROSS KS WED AFTERNOON. DEEPLAYER SHEAR IMPRESSIVE BOTH FROM SPEED & DIRECTIONAL STANDPOINTS. WITHPACIFIC COLD FRONT SURGING SE ACROSS KICT COUNTRY WED EVENING SUCH SHEARWILL INCREASE FURTHER. SBCAPES OF 1,000-1,300J PROGGED OVER MOST OF KICTCOUNTRY WED AFTERNOON & WITH STRONG 700-500MB COLD ADVECTION INVADING KSAS MID-UPR LOW VENTURES E ACROSS NRN PLAINS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION ISLIKELY. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THAT SUPERCELLS WILLDEVELOP OVER AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG & E OF I-135 WED AFTERNOON & EVENING& WITH SUCH STRONG MID-UPR FLOW...SUPERCELLS TO BE FAST-MOVING WITHDAMAGING WINDS OF 60-70 MPH & LARGE HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE. ONLY CHANGESWERE TO INCREASE POPS WED NIGHT OVER SE KS AS CONVERGENCE ALONGAPPROACHING COLD FRONT IMPRESSIVE.
My Blog List
- ► 2011 (9)
- ► 2010 (24)
- ► 2009 (119)
- Hangin in Hays
- Russell Kansas Chase Base - Things to do
- Fog over Denver
- Chinook Winds along hw93
- Favored Chase Areas Map
- Carlson Chasers Season 2008 DVD!
- Severe weather possible next Sunday!
- Tornadoes possible in Kansas/Oklahoma today
- Late season severe chances - but I'll sit this one...
- Severe weather a possibility for Weds!
- ▼ November (10)
- ► 2007 (233)
- ► 2006 (417)