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Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Late season severe chances - but I'll sit this one out



Still mulling things over for a chase on Weds. Pluses are that everything looks like it will be in place for severe weather. Even with the early sunset of 5:45pm CST it looks like there will be ample CAPE and erroded cap by 3-4pm so that we'll have a couple hours of storms before dark. Also on the plus side is that since this is a pacific front there won't be a raging blizzard on the backside to content with. Gas is reasonable at $2.29/gal but I have to take the Exped so that negates the cheap gas!

Minuses right now are the distance east with most targets starting at I-35 and going east from there. Right now I'm about 50-50 on going. I have all my gear in the car and will decide after the 12z NAM model run.

EDIT: after the latest NAM run the dryline is moved even farther east of I-35. The latest SPC day 2 also cut back on the 30% severe area and expects that a squall line will develop. Given that, I'm going to sit this one out. It is November afterall and not May!

Wichita AFD from this morning:
WED & WED NIGHT:THESE CONTINUE TO BE 2 MOST VOLATILE PERIODS OF FORECAST. WITH UPR-DECKTROF ASSUMING MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT DIGS FURTHER OVER SRN ROCKIES...UPR DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE WED WITH STRONG(!) SWLY UPR-DECK FLOW (500MB WINDS OF 50-70KTS) PROGGED TO SPREAD NE ACROSS KS WED AFTERNOON. DEEPLAYER SHEAR IMPRESSIVE BOTH FROM SPEED & DIRECTIONAL STANDPOINTS. WITHPACIFIC COLD FRONT SURGING SE ACROSS KICT COUNTRY WED EVENING SUCH SHEARWILL INCREASE FURTHER. SBCAPES OF 1,000-1,300J PROGGED OVER MOST OF KICTCOUNTRY WED AFTERNOON & WITH STRONG 700-500MB COLD ADVECTION INVADING KSAS MID-UPR LOW VENTURES E ACROSS NRN PLAINS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION ISLIKELY. AS SUCH CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THAT SUPERCELLS WILLDEVELOP OVER AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG & E OF I-135 WED AFTERNOON & EVENING& WITH SUCH STRONG MID-UPR FLOW...SUPERCELLS TO BE FAST-MOVING WITHDAMAGING WINDS OF 60-70 MPH & LARGE HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE. ONLY CHANGESWERE TO INCREASE POPS WED NIGHT OVER SE KS AS CONVERGENCE ALONGAPPROACHING COLD FRONT IMPRESSIVE.

1 comment:

PestProJoe said...

This is like that movie twisters! Minus that Hollywood stuff. Great site! I am going to add you to my blog list!

-joe

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