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Thursday, April 13, 2006

Des Moines, IA AFD mentioning Tornadoes southwest of area for Saturday

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SYS...GFS SEEMS FASTER THAN ALL OTHER MODELS AND SLOWER SOLUTIONS FAVORED. WARM ADVECTION INCREASES...BUT MAINLY TO OUR SW OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING THE SW. ISENT LIFT SPREADS INTO IA DURING THE MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING AND THEN BECOMING MORE WIDE SPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING NAM SOLUTION...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO OTHER MODELS...SUGGESTS CURRENT ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW REACHING MO VALLEY AS A PROGRESSIVE WV WITH ATTENDANT SFC LOW ONLY SLIGHTLY AHEAD. INSTABILITY AXIS WRAPS INTO LOW FROM NWRN MO ADVANCING INTO SWRN IA DURING THE EVE. WILL NOT BREAK DOWN DETAILS...BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALL POINT TOWARD DECENT SVR WX EVENT WITH ALL MODES AND SOME TORNADOES POSSIBLE. STRONG QG FORCING ON NOSE OF DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERWHELMANY CIN. SHOULD EXPAND INTO LARGE MCS SAT NIGHT WITH NOSE OF WARM ADVECTION SURGING INTO IA SO EXPANDING LIKELY WORDING SAT NIGHT. PCPN MAY LINGER INTO SUN ERN HALF WITH LITTLE CHANGE THAT PERIOD.

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The Carlsons', Verne, Michael and Eric

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