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Sunday, April 30, 2006

Potential Chase Day Tuesday May 2

Well SPC has a huge slight risk area out on the day 3 outlook for most of the central plains. I tried to narrow this down by looking at the models. Both the NAM and GFS show a jet max over the northern plains at that time but they differ on the placement of the surface low and moisture return. NAM has the low up into NE with lower Tds while the GFS has the surface low in w KS with Tds as high as 70 in e KS. The GFS has over done the Tds all season so I prefer the NAM solution with 60s Tds and the surface low in NE. Depending on how this setup looks in the next couple days I may just take a day off to chase it if it's not too far east as I'd most likely be going this one solo.

1 comment:

Tony Laubach said...

I have an exam that day, so I won't chase it. But it could be nice if its Hays westward. We shall see in the next day or so.

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