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Monday, May 22, 2006

Target today is eastern CO!


Waking up today in McCook, NE and surprised that SPC has less than 2% tornado risk. Denver AFD has stronger wording. Tds in Limon are 54 this morning which is the best seen all year. Can see a Denver Cyclone setting up with winds in Ft. Collins out of the north and Akron out of the south. Things look great today for some storm action!

From the Den AFD: MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS MUCHOF NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN CULPRIT ISSTRONG NEG TILTED TROF NOW COMING ONSHORE ACROSS SRN CA. THE LOWWILL RAPIDLY MOVE TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY 00Z TUE AND THENOVER THE FRONT RANGE TOWARDS 12Z TUE. FAIRLY DECENT ASCENT NOTEDFROM QG VERTICAL VEL FIELDS BY LATER THIS AFTN AND TNT WHILE 70KTJET CORE LIFTS ACROSS NERN CO BY LATER TNT. MID LVL FLOW ALSOINCREASES TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 35-40KT WHILE LOW LVL FLOW INCREASESFROM THE S-SE. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE VALUES AROUND 1500J/KGOVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND INCREASES TO OVER 2000J/KG FURTHER EASTWARD. ABOVE FACTORS CONDUCIVE TO SOME STORMS BECOMING SEVEREWITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. SPC ALSO HAS ALL OF NERN CO INSLIGHT CHC OF SEVERE TODAY AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR IN THE RICHER MOISTURE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL(UP TO 2" DIAMATER) AND DAMAGING WINDS.HOWEVER...EVEN OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR EXPECT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ASWELL. GIVEN THE THE STRONG SERLY LOW LVL FLOW EXPECT EVEN A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL.

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