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Wednesday, February 04, 2009

First Chase of 2009 now on the 4 - 8 day outlook

SPC now has the Sunday Feb 8th system on the 4 - 8 day outlook. While moisture return will be limiting factor on this day the shear will be impressive. Although this setup is not ideal - I am leaning towards chasing it just to get out and brush the dust of all the equipment. I really like the chase terrain on Sunday making a saturday trip to Amarillo likely and then just a short drive east into OK on Sunday. After that the system moves off to eastern OK which I have no desire to chase.

SPC text:
...ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FORECAST OVER AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL U.S. NEXT WEEK...

...DAY5/SUNDAY TO MONDAY MORNING... MREF AND RECENT GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD FROM AZ TO THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE TYPICALLY SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE TROUGH POSITION THROUGH 120 HOURS/SUNDAY EVENING. BUT...RECENT ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE/EWD H5 TROUGH POSITION NOW IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE MREF H5 MEAN. THIS LENDS CONFIDENCE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEING FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING.

GIVEN PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE JET COUPLING AND STRENGTHENING ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS TX/OK/KS THROUGH SUNDAY...DYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INCREASINGLY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. AIR MASS QUALITY WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A ROLE IN OVERALL SEVERE STORM COVERAGE AND MODE. NUMEROUS RECENT INTRUSIONS OF COLD/DRY AIR INTO THE NW GULF SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT CAPE WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...THIS LIMITING FACTOR SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY THE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND SHEAR FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH...SURFACE LOW...AND FRONT MOVING OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

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