2009-04-26 Report

A high risk of severe weather was issued by the SPC this day.

A rarely seen 30% hatched risk for tornadoes plus most of the central plains under PDS tornado watches!

5000 Capes forecast by the RUC by 4pm CDT!



Tornado #1 21:29z west of Roll, OK on hw33 - funnel forms and touches down just to our southeast.

It tears up trees and throws sheet metal in the air.

Two cows can be seen standing to the lower right of the ground swirl. Shortly before this I saw the tornado rip a 30 foot high tree into the air and it completely disappeared before my eyes!

I punch the accelerator and floor it back east barely staying in front of it as it passes within 5o feet of the rear of our car. Dirt, rain and grass are blasting against Eric's side of the car and his face as he films!

I swing the car around as Eric films the tornado pass just behind us.





Tornado #2 21:41z south of Arnett, OK on hw283 Reed Timmer is just ahead of us coming up the hill from the Canadian river as the new stronger tornado passes just ahead of us. The RFD winds were howling from the west here!

Tornado seems to pause for a bit in the valley to our east as it climbs the hill. Unfortunately at least one house is hit. A mobile home apparently. There were no known injuries with either of these tornadoes thankfully.

The tornado is on the ground for 15 maybe 20 minutes.

A long lived stout cone that might rate as EF3 maybe low end EF 4 at it's strongest. Damage surveys will tell.

The entire meso exposes itself for a bit and we can see how powerful this tornado is!


You have to see this video!!

Two strong tornadoes today!

Roger Mills OK we were 50 ft from the first one. 100 yds from the second! 1 rope 1 large cone!

Shattuck OK

High risk day, PDS watches! Strong cell with lowering. live stream at TVN!

Storms and Tornadoes again possible today!

Today looks great for tornadoes in the northwest OK and southcentral KS area! We will be leaving Amarillo here shortly for an initial target of Buffalo, OK and then see where the dryline intersects the lifting warmfront.

Live streaming today on TVN

Equipment

• Dash and Cab Cam - up
• WW3 - replacement - up
• Scarecrow - up
• FM Trex 600 - up
  

Wheeler county texas storm

Eric and I hung out just north of Elk City, OK for most of the afternoon chatting with Fred Plowman and talking to Randy Denzer on the phone while we waited for mother nature to start her show. Randy let me know that a cell was starting to form near Wheeler, TX so we shot east on hw152 to intercept it near Mobeetie, TX (above).

The cell above already had good rainshaft/updraft separation and a few times tried to spin up some scud from almost ground level. We followed the cell to Reydon, OK where we were temped away by the storms forming along the dryline to the south of Elk City, OK.

As we drove away towards Grimes, OK we were looking back to the cell and could see it was dropping a significant lowering! We decided another look was needed so we intercepted the cell again just to the west of Cheyenne, OK. Here the updraft was doing a 'slow dance' and pulling scud off the ground in a very very slow spiral. It was at this time that Heidi Ferrar and Reed Timmer called me to ask if the storm was high based. It had gone tornado warned and was looking very intense and seemed it would produce at any moment. As the storm passed over us near Strong City, OK on hw283 it had it's best attempt yet with a lowering off to our northwest and then a spiral that went straight overhead as the TIV2 and doghouse support vehicles rolled by.

The storm once again had it's shot but fell short and we could see the base was raising again so this time we really did shoot south of I-40 getting their right at dark to see the most amazing meso below!

Crawford, OK

Trying to form a funnel!

Moderate risk for severe weather in the TX panhandle!

Yesterday: intercepted the tail-end of a cold front push line of storms in northcentral KS. Nice rock hard convection but little to no hail encountered. Some brief landspout attempts under rapidly developing towers but nothing terribly robust. Crashed and recovered WW3a after loosing visual on it during FPV storm flight. Successfully streamed entire flight under storm conditions.

Today: travel from Russell, KS down to dryline bulge, upper 60 Tds, 25oo Capes under approaching upper trough. Expect a few tornadoes and large hail today.
Live streaming for the Discovery Storm Chasers Show cross promotion above and on TVN so watch our cam later today!

Equipment:

• WW3a - down from crash, replacement at AMA for sunday
• Dashcam and Cabcam - up
• Scarecrow - up
• FM Trex 600 helicopter - up
  

Cell north of Concordia, KS

Look at the tower on this storm!!

Line of cells in southcentral NE

Watching this line build from just north of Concordia, KS. Live stream on TVN!

Chase plans this weekend

Here's how this weekends' plans are shaping up for us:

Thursday - Pick up Eric at 5pm from campus, travel out to Russell, KS

Friday - early wake up, travel to eastern NE for chasing from Grand Island to Norfolk. Back to Russell overnight. Edit 18z NAM has tail-end charlie over Beatrice, NE - better yet!

Saturday - early wake up, travel to eastern TX panhandle for chasing into western OK. Travel to Amarillo overnight.

Sunday - chasing in the TX panhandle second day! Amarillo overnight.

Monday - travel back to Denver.

Equipment:

• Dash and Cab cams - up
• WW3a jet - up
• FM Trex 600 - up
• Scarecrow - up
  

Chase days coming up this weekend!

Looking more and more likely that the best chase day will be Saturday April 25th this weekend. Friday has great Tds in the 60s and huge CAPES on the NAM but the upper wave holds back to far west.

On Saturday the upper energy comes in atop an area of 2000 capes along the KS/OK border.

Sunday holds hope for southwestern OK, perhaps from Altus, OK to Childress, TX. Right now I have taken Friday and Monday off from work and will definately be out chasing. It's almost May afterall!

April 2009 Upslope Snowstorm

That's the sideview mirror of a truck under that pile of snow! The official total for this storm in Coal Creek Canyon was 52" - there was an unofficial report of 60".

Power crews work to repair downed lines. The heavy wet snow snapped numerous pine trees.

Coal Creek Canyon Convenience Store area becomes a parking lot.

Our street sign!

We had atleast 4 feet of snow at our house. I had to snowblow the driveway 5 times - each 4 hours as the snow came down!

32 in in Coak Creek Canyon!

Everything is buried. Power was out for K hours last night. All services are back on. Snow is STILL coming down! Verne Carlson

24 inches in Coal Creek Canyon

Still coming down. Going to snowblow the driveway for the 3rd time now! Verne Carlson

14 inches in Coal Creek Canyon

At least 14 inches of heavy wet snow and still coming down! Power keeps going off. Verne Carlson

2009-04-16 Report

Image of me in the Expedition with the Expedition driving by and Michael's Subaru in the backgroud - all live streamed at the same time. Crazy!

Yesterday's can be summed up by: "When there's a slight risk of severe weather in your backyard, you have to give it a try!"

Not much materialized in the cool 60 degree temps and 50 dewpoints over eastern Colorado yesterday. I headed out from work at 11am and got out to Limon, CO into some broken sunshine and warmer temps from the stratus deck to the west. I saw that Michael was coming out on I-70 on spotternetwork and gave him a call. We all met up at Arby's and grabbed some quick lunch and then headed south out of Limon on hw71 towards a blip that had formed on the GR3 radar.

About a mile south of town my engine started making a 'pop - pop' sound and started loosing power. I pulled over and opened the hood to find fuel and air popping out of one of the sparkplug holes. I swung around and limped back to town while Michael continued south.

In Limon, I stopped at the main truck stop and they pointed me to a shop on the north side of town where in a crazy moment of convergence the TIV2 pulled in front of me in. Sitting in the waiting room of the repair shop with TWC on cable and my laptop going - I saw that Tony Laubach was also right near me on spotternetwork and in fact I could see him at the Flying J truck stop across the street! That's one of the crazy things about chasing that you can run into friends in the middle of no where from all over the country or right in your backyard.

$275 later I was on the road and headed back south to meet up with Michael and Christian near the town of Karval, CO. Easterly winds were howling and clouds streaming in from the west. Everything was looking good, we were going to get our turn just like everyone on the tornadoes between Amarillo and Lubbock, TX an hour before!

A string of cells developed over Springfield, CO to the south and started moving in the flow towards us. We raced down to almost Las Animas, CO were the storms started die off in a surge of cold air and stratus from the east.

That was it for us and we headed back to Denver where we are now on the cold side of the storm and have already gotten 14" of snow and may get up to 3 feet!

Tornadoes possible in Eastern Colorado today!

A slow moving intense upper level system will move into eastern CO and west TX today with chances for tornadoes on the east side and up to 2 feet of snow on the west side! I will be leaving work at lunch today and heading out I-70 and positioning to catch any of the storms that are expected to form in mid-40 Tds in an arc from about Limon down to the OK panhandle.
The WRF simulated radar at 3pm MDT (21z) shows a nice arc of cells through central CO right at the apex of the current clear slot in southcentral CO - this will be my target. RUC shows the most CAPE up to 1000J/Kg2 in this area as well.

Equipment Status

• Dash and Cockpit Cam - up
• WW3a live stream jet - up
• Live stream probe - up

Live streaming on TVN!

Update on FAA regulations regarding RC-VLOS aircraft

News is leaking out about an eventual easing of the restrictions on commercial Radio Control - Visual Line Of Site operations. ie. What I want to do with the Flying Monkeys project. The news is good in that rules are coming - the bad news is that it might be 2011 or 2012 before it gets released. In the mean time I will be doing some other exciting live streaming projects. Details to be released later!

The FAA is going in the direction of developing a set of standards and regulations which will ALLOW what is illegal today. >>>>>>>> This includes operating RC-VLOS platforms and generating profit. They are working toward regulatory conditions where this can be legal. <<<<<<<<

The final ARC recommendations will be factored into the overall process but the specifics of the ARC recommendations (especially sizes, weights, speeds, altitudes, etc) will not survive 100% so don't bother getting you knickers twisted with that document. The FAA will now be factoring in ICAO standards and other legal considerations into the process to produce the NPRM thing. The time-frame for the NPRM output won't be this year.

The ICAO standards and other legal considerations will rule over anybody crying "Hey, that's not fair! My xx pound heli is no more dangerous that that little xx pound heli and besides, I've been doing this for years."

Those who fly for $$ will be considered 'not model' but UAS and have the additional requirements placed on them. Even slow-stickers and Blade 400 guys.

Expect that part of the conditions for flying rc for $$ includes demonstration of required knowledge, experience and/or skill, pilot certification, pilot registration and aircraft registration. You will NOT be required to have a manned pilot certificate for at least our smaller UAS sizes.

Timeframe for this to happen: 2011 or 2012 - ugh!

Multiple days of chasing coming up!

Models differ on the timing of a trough coming in later this week and the quality of moisture return. It looks likely however that I might get my first west Texas trip this spring. I have already requested thursday and friday off from work and will be basing out of Amarillo for this one!

Edit: The 18z NAM is making thursday look a lot like April 21, 2007 - the Cactus wedge and Tulia tornado day of almost exactly two years ago!

Edit again: The 18z GFS is hinting at an active period after this around Tues April 28th.

2009-04-09 Report

Started the day in Russell, KS and came down 135 to Wichita. There was some chance for early cold core action west of Wichita as Mike Umshied had pointed out on Stormtrack so I had it in my mind to hold back a bit and see if something might develop early closer to the surface low.

The SPC had upgraded to moderate risk and 15 % hatched tornadoes so this drew me down to play in the ne OK/se KS area. For the first time I took the Southeast Parkway through Mulvane, KS which I'll have to remember is a good way to get down into se KS!

Setup shop on hw166 and 15 right on the OK/KS border and had the first cell of the day pop just to my southwest - bingo! The storms intensified and showed some promise of a good chase day.

This first cell weakend a bit so I shot south on 15 to Burbank, OK and then east to Pawhuska, OK where better cells were coming up from the south. These weakend as they approached me however so I headed back up to just west of Sedan, KS where cells were intensifying along the warmfront. Had I just stayed there I could have saved a lot of driving but this kind of second guessing happens alot in storm chasing!

On the way up by Sedan I was passing wildfires on all sides of the road and it was strange to have tornado warned storms as my main focus but also wildfires all around that turned out to be a bigger story in the area.

Chased the warmfront storms north to about Howard, KS were there was a 'sweet spot' of training storms with intense updrafts and nickel hail (photo above). This system went on to drop a tornado in Mena, AR with considerable damage and injuries.

Cell near Ponca City, OK

First to go up in tornado watch box - waiting!

Live Streaming Probe

Going to try and get this into a tornado today as well as one of my planes. Wish me luck - video on TVN!

Chasing today in ne OK!

Live stream at TVN

Edit: Upgrade to Moderate!

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL VEERING AND
  INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT...POSING A RISK OF
  SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES OVER THE MODERATE RISK AREA THROUGH EARLY
  EVENING. 

Just taking a peak at the day 1 outlook and latest NAM from Russell, KS this morning and capes have increased on the latest model run and also shifted to the southeast a bit. Based on this I plan to make my way down I-35 to the OK border and look for some early cold core action before following it east along the KS/OK border. I hope to get a few flights in today as well as a possible deployment with the Live Streaming Probe. Next week Eric may be able to chase once classes ease up so I will have the helicopter out as well!

Equipment for today:

• WW3a - up
• Dashcam and cockpit cam - up
  
• Live Streaming Probe
  

TVN live streaming to be shown on CNN!

Those of us as streamers for TVN and WDT Inc in March debuted the capabilities of the iMap tracker integrating radar, gps and live chaser video. CNN is to show our chases this spring and going forward from their newsroom. It is great to be a part of cutting edge technology such as this. This is the future of storm chasing unfolding in front of us!

Next chase from Amarillo on the 11th?

While I would like to jump on every chase that comes along I am okay with the fact that I didn't chase the cold core system in southern Nebraska yesterday. It was clear to me on Friday that even if all the moisture in the gulf had advected north it would have only meant low 50 Tds in the area. As it happened only a few brief tornadoes were reported in the low 40 dewpoint air. And to reward the trip, I-70 is closed from Limon to the Kansas border for 2 - 3 foot high drifts!

Looking at the GFS there is a trough coming into the southern plains for next weekend. This system looks like it could have better moisture than we've seen so far and it might be my first chase out of Amarillo. Amanda and the pups would likely come down for the weekend so I won't be able to host any chasers out of the chase base this weekend - sorry guys..

Edit: after the latest GFS run it looks like Saturday the 11th is the best day!

SPC 4-8 day outlook: MORE IMPORTANT EVENT MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING AGAIN IS UNCLEAR.
THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND OFFER A HIGHER SVR RISK
THAN ITS PREDECESSOR.