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Sunday, April 05, 2009

Next chase from Amarillo on the 11th?



While I would like to jump on every chase that comes along I am okay with the fact that I didn't chase the cold core system in southern Nebraska yesterday. It was clear to me on Friday that even if all the moisture in the gulf had advected north it would have only meant low 50 Tds in the area. As it happened only a few brief tornadoes were reported in the low 40 dewpoint air. And to reward the trip, I-70 is closed from Limon to the Kansas border for 2 - 3 foot high drifts!

Looking at the GFS there is a trough coming into the southern plains for next weekend. This system looks like it could have better moisture than we've seen so far and it might be my first chase out of Amarillo. Amanda and the pups would likely come down for the weekend so I won't be able to host any chasers out of the chase base this weekend - sorry guys..

Edit: after the latest GFS run it looks like Saturday the 11th is the best day!

SPC 4-8 day outlook: MORE IMPORTANT EVENT MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH TIMING AGAIN IS UNCLEAR.
THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND OFFER A HIGHER SVR RISK
THAN ITS PREDECESSOR.

1 comment:

Dann Cianca said...

I'll have to admit ... when I saw the tornado warnings go up, I got really anxious about not having gone out ... but since it looks like they were just spin-ups ... AGAIN! ... I didn't feel so bad.

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