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Friday, March 20, 2009

Cold Core in Western Kansas on Monday?

Monday is looking more and more to me like a Cold Core setup. With low Cape and high shear and the upper and lower level features I'm liking western Kansas on both Sunday and Monday.

Sunday: an upper level impulse ahead of the main trough kicks out over sw KS over 1000 J/kg Capes and gives a 'day before the day' chance at rotating storms around Garden City, KS

Monday: a string of pearls pops from Goodland to Beaver, OK as seen in the 6z NAM run above for 18z Monday. Anywhere along the dryline here will be going crazy on Monday!

Here's a couple HWO's:

Dodge City:
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY. THE
LACK OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
TEND TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD OR HIGH END SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.

Oklahoma City:
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER
ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
. STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO LISTEN FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND... AND TO BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ACTIVE
PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Topeka:
A STRONG DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLDFRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN KS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE SFC DRYLINE MAY CONSIST OF MODERATEINSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE NAM FCST MODEL ONLYSHOWS BETWEEN 400 TO 800 J/KG...BUT I THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGHISOLATION AHEAD OF THE SFC DRYLINE FOR INCREASED SURFACEHEATING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER MLCAPE...PROBABLY1200-1500 J/KG. THE SFC CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL CAUSESCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ANDCENTRAL KS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE INTENSE 5H TROUGH LIFTNORTHEAST ACROSS CO...THE INCREASE ASCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL KS WILLCAUSE THE CAP TO WEAKEN AND THE SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TOCONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ANDLARGE HAIL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAYDEVELOP FARTHER EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS DURING THE LATEAFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEARAND INSTABILITY MAY CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LARGEHAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WITH ANY DISCRETESUPERCELLS. IF WE REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...THENTHE POTENTIAL IS MUCH LOWER FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOPACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA.

1 comment:

Dann Cianca said...

The instability forecast for Sunday tanked this morning. I hope it amps up a bit more back to the consistent runs of the last three days! I agree with you on Monday, though, I think Kansas might be the best play.

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