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Friday, May 23, 2008

Day 3 of chasing - West Central Kansas


As I'm writing this a severe thunderstorm is rocking our motel in Hays, KS! Today looks like another significant tornado outbreak in western Kansas with much of the same ingredients as yesterday!

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
STRONG DIABATIC SFC HEATING...COMBINED WITH ASCENT ALONG DRYLINE AND
FRONT...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MID-LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE AND ALONG/S OF FRONT. SUPERCELLS
FORMING IN THIS REGIME WILL OFFER THREAT OF TORNADOES ANYTIME DURING
THEIR MATURITY...BUT PARTICULARLY UPON INTERACTING WITH FRONTAL
ZONE...WHERE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY...STORM-RELATIVE FLOW AND SRH ALL
ARE MAXIMIZED. STRONGER UPPER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION VENTING DOWNSHEAR...PERHAPS COUNTERBALANCING
TENDENCIES FOR SEEDING AND INTERFERENCE FROM CLOSE-PROXIMITY STORMS.
THESE FACTORS..ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL
INGREDIENTS...SUGGEST SEVERAL LONG-LIVED/CYCLIC SUPERCELLS AGAIN ARE
POSSIBLE
...PRODUCING TORNADOES...SOME SIGNIFICANT...ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.

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