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Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Day 1 Outlook now posted and it looks favorable!



The Day one outlook is out and it looks very good for our plans tomorrow! We are currently at the Best Western in York, NE just at the nw side of the highest tornado risk area. The plan is to catch the activity near the triple point around noon local and then by 3pm we should have dryline storms firing to our south that we can move on. But hey! We're not greedy!

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THURSDAY... SRN ROCKIES SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO EJECT THROUGH THE BASE OF PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ACROSS OK INTO SWRN MO BY EARLY EVENING...ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN STRONGLY DIVERGENT EXIT REGION ACROSS NEB/KS DURING PEAK HEATING. BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS RECOVERING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH TX INTO OK LATE THIS EVENING WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. THIS AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE ADVECTING NWD...WHERE IT ULTIMATELY WILL BE RELEASED IN THE FORM OF SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION BENEATH COLD UPPER TROUGH. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL FORCE ELEVATED CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM OK...NWD INTO SRN NEB. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY NEWD DURING THE MID DAY HOURS AS WLY FLOW DEEPENS ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL SURGE INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH A NARROW WEDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR INTO ERN KS/OK. TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AND THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT CAP SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG WELL DEFINED DRYLINE BY 21Z...POSSIBLY EARLIER IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER VORT/SFC LOW OVER SCNTRL NEB.

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The Carlsons', Verne, Michael and Eric

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