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Friday, March 17, 2006

More about local setup if TX looks bleak

Den PM AFD:
on saturday...moisture increases in
the lower levels as well. the low level pressure and wind fields
show decent southeasterly boundary layer flow tonight and saturday
for the plains. this help get the dew points into the 30 to 40 f
range over all the plains by saturday afternoon. there is a decent
theta-e axis across the plains after 21z saturday afternoon. the
cape values are up around 400 joules/kg over the southern plains of
the forecast area by late saturday afternoon. the northeastern
corner has a pretty strong cap at the mid levels...but further west
over the plains...the lapse raters care quite steep. the cross
sections show decent potential instability as well.

regarding saturday evening and again sunday afternoon...model
soundings show the airmass to be quite unstable...so have included
the chance of thunderstorms in each period.

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