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Monday, March 06, 2006

Weds Mar 8th the day?


Looks like the concensus is that weak convergence will be insufficeint to break the cap for Tuesday with only a meager 5% chance of supercells. SPC has wednesday posted with a slight risk for west OK and se KS. With this in mind I think the plan now is to leave Denver at 5pm on Tuesday afternoon, spend the night in/around Dodge City, KS and be in position for Wednesday.

From the Day 3 Outlook:

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS/MO VALLEY... DESPITE QUESTIONS REGARDING LOCATION AND TIMING OF POTENTIAL THREAT...A RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS APPARENT SOMEWHERE WITHIN A LARGE AREA FROM TX/OK ACROSS KS AND MO...AS SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG FLOW ALOFT SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS ABOVE MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE -- WHICH BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE WITHIN A W-E ZONE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE/S PLAINS EWD TO CENTRAL OK/N TX. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN DIFFERENT LOW-LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISMS WHICH SHOULD YIELD SEVERAL DIFFERENT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...AND AMOUNT OF TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS...WILL INTRODUCE A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION. AREA WILL LIKELY BE REFINED -- AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES INCREASED -- IN LATER FORECASTS.

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